Conspiracy theories draw momentum from local experiences

A recently completed study on conspiracy theories, the most extensive one ever conducted in Europe, found that narratives circulating across national borders adapt to local history, cultural memory and social tensions. A book presenting the study’s findings has now been published, co-edited by Mari-Liis Madisson, Associate Professor of Semiotics at the University of Tartu.

Why is the same conspiracy theory associated with different phenomena in different parts of Europe? Sometimes merely hinting at Big Brother or the Ministry of Truth is enough to have a particular political decision interpreted as part of a totalitarian plot orchestrated by conspirators. However, the precise meaning these symbols acquire depends largely on the local context.

The book Conspiracy Theories in the European Digital Sphere, recently published by Routledge, presents the results of the REDACT project (Researching Europe, Digitalisation and Conspiracy Theories). According to Mari-Liis Madisson, no previous study of conspiracy theories has been as broad in scope or covered so many European regions simultaneously.

Researchers analysed posts on Facebook, Telegram and X in 11 countries: the United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. Extensive quantitative social media analysis was complemented by context-sensitive in-depth analysis, digital ethnography, and 95 interviews with experts in fact-checking and countering disinformation.

The same conspiracy theory takes on different meanings in different places

It is often assumed that conspiracy theories spread globally and that both social media and foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI) contribute to suspicion of conspiracies. The study confirmed that the key themes of conspiracy theories spreading in Europe are indeed relatively similar, but their meanings vary considerably from one place to another: the form a conspiracy theory takes is shaped by its local context. Therefore, conspiracy theories circulating in digital environments cannot be regarded merely as a social media or disinformation problem. Narratives about QAnon, the “plandemic”, the “exploitative green transition”, or “imposed gender ideology” travel across borders, but adapt to the history, political conflicts and culture of each location.

“People do not simply stumble upon conspiracy theories on social media by chance. Distrust is usually already present,” said Madisson. Most conspiracy narratives that have gained traction in Europe have not merely been imported from elsewhere. Even when they use globally recognisable buzzwords, they take root in local conditions. The Kremlin’s information influence activities tend to amplify conspiracy theories in the Baltic states, posing a serious security concern. However, the study consistently showed that those spreading such narratives build on existing ideas and social tensions rather than creating them from scratch.

In the chapter focusing on Estonia, Madisson and Tatjana Menise, who worked as a researcher in semiotics on the REDACT project, demonstrate how the news portals Uued Uudised and Objektiiv employ imagery from George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four in their strategic conspiracy narratives. In Estonia and Latvia, interpretations of conspiracy discourse are strongly shaped by experiences of Soviet occupation and Russification, Russia’s current aggression against Ukraine, and the demographic vulnerability of small nations. The so-called “Great Replacement” theory is less associated with race here than it is in Western Europe. Instead, it often resonates with fears about the disappearance and extinction of Estonians and Latvians.

A powerful message is short and ambiguous

“A message alluding to a conspiracy does not always require a lengthy narrative or detailed explanation. Sometimes a reference to Big Brother, Newspeak or the Ministry of Truth is enough for the audience to associate a particular political decision with totalitarian control and hidden manipulation,” Madisson explained. According to her, the power of such a short cultural form lies in what is left unsaid: the listener or reader completes the connection themselves, drawing on meanings already embedded in cultural memory.

The analysis repeatedly identified ways in which Nineteen Eighty-Four is linked to conspiratorial interpretations. For example, state surveillance is portrayed as a step towards Big Brother’s society of control, while fact-checking is depicted as censorship resembling the Ministry of Truth. Such ambiguity is a strategic choice, a pattern that REDACT partners also observed in other countries. Politicians from the AfD party in Germany, as well as right-wing populist movements in Poland, often avoid making explicit conspiracy claims and instead operate in a grey zone where references can always be defended as literary comparison, humour or irony. This reduces the risk of reputational damage while broadening their target audience, since the same message can resonate with multiple audiences simultaneously.

The researchers emphasise that there is little benefit in efforts to debunk conspiracy theories and limit their spread unless attention is paid to the deeper factors that make such theories appealing.

The book Conspiracy Theories in the European Digital Sphere is available in open access and can be read for free on the Taylor & Francis/Routledge website under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licence. Alongside Mari-Liis Madisson, the book was edited by Clare Birchall, Nebojša Blanuša, Michael Butter, Elżbieta Drążkiewicz and Peter Knight.